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小型城市将推动中国消费繁荣
来源: | 作者:聚合财人 | 发布时间: 2017-06-30 | 6956 次浏览 | 分享到:



文章转载:Morgan Stanley

文章翻译:聚合财人

外文原文:Smaller Cities to Drive China’s Consumption Boom 



尽管人们对中国最大的城市给予了极大的关注,但未来10年,中国规模较小的城市中心可能成为增长和消费支出的更大推动力。


While much attention is paid to China's largest cities, the country's smaller urban centers could become the larger driver of growth and consumer spending in the coming decade.



上海人口约为2400万,几乎与德克萨斯州(2700万)相当,中国其他大城市也紧随其后。这些城市的消费者以及他们的人均净收入,自然而然地吸引了国内和国际品牌的关注。


The population of Shanghai, at around 24 million, nearly rivals that of Texas (27 million) and China's other large cities aren't far behind. Consumers in these urban behemoths—along with their rising per capita net worth—have naturally captured the focus of domestic and international brands.



根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近的一份研究报告,到2030年,随着中国发展成为一个高收入社会,私人消费将从目前的4.4万亿美元增长到9.7万亿美元。许多投资者认为,在中国的消费经济中,继续占据主导地位的要么是省会城市,要么是所谓的经济特区的一线城市。


As China develops into a higher income society, private consumption could grow from its current $4.4 trillion to $9.7 trillion by 2030, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Research. Many investors believe that top-tier cities, which are either provincial capitals or so-called special economic zones, will continue to dominate China's consumer economy.



然而,据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席中国经济学家邢自强(Robin Xing)表示,这些二线城市(包括县级市和县级市的城市群,已经占全国GDP的59%和人口的73%),可能会成为推动经济增长的更大动力。“虽然投资者认为大城市提供了最重要的消费基础,但我们相信,较低层次的城市将会更大、更富有、更渴望消费,并可能在2030年的国家私人消费中贡献三分之二的增量增长,”Xing说。


However, the lower-tier cities, which include prefecture- and county-level urban enclaves and already comprise 59% of the country's GDP and 73% of its population, may be bigger engines for spending to fuel economic growth, according to Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist. “While investors perceive larger cities as offering the most important consumer base, we believe that lower-tier cities will be bigger, wealthier and more eager to spend, and could contribute two-thirds of incremental growth in national private consumption toward 2030," Xing says. 


对于那些对中国经济持续增长充满信心、但不确定具体增长地点的投资者来说,这些二、三线城市,比如东部的徐州南通,南部的泉州,或北方的保定市,可能会带来巨大的前景,因为他们可能会开始展现出巨大的消费能力。事实上,许多行业——从消费品和国内汽车到旅游、娱乐和游戏产业——都有有利的优势。

For investors who are confident in China’s continuing growth, but uncertain about where to find it, these lower-tier cities, such as Xuzhou and Nantong in the east, Quanzhou in the south, or Baoding in the north, may offer significant prospects, as they start to flex their considerable consumer might. Indeed, a number of industries are well-positioned to benefit—from consumer goods and domestic autos to the travel, entertainment and gaming industries. 



2017-30年中国较低线城市将推动三分之二的国内消费增长


人口转移Population Shift



在中国的大城市里,城市人口的增长已经放缓甚至转负。举例来说,上海的城市人口规模自2015年开始收缩,北京的政策制定者们正努力通过建立“雄安新区”的计划,将人们迁移出这座城市,以缓解交通拥堵和过度拥挤的问题。

Urban population growth has slowed or even turned negative in China’s large cities. Case in point, Shanghai's urban population size has contracted since 2015, and policymakers in Beijing are making efforts to relocate people out of the city via plans to set up the “Xiong’an New District,” to ease traffic congestion and overcrowding issues.



与此相反,在过去5年里,由于官方户籍政策更加灵活,生育率更高,城市人口在较低水平的城市人口(已经9倍、3倍于一级和二线城市)在过去5年里以相对较高的速度增长。“根据联合国的估计,我们预计未来14年将有1.66亿人从农村转移到城市,其中75%的人将流向更低层次的城市,”邢自强说。


In contrast, urban population in lower-tier cities—already nine-times and triple that of tier-1 and tier-2 cities, respectively—has increased at a relatively higher pace over the past five years, due to a more flexible official residency policy and higher fertility rates. “Based on a United Nations estimate, we expect 166 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the next 14 years, with 75% of them headed toward lower-tier cities," Xing says.



消费能力上升
Growing Consumer Power




经济学家喜欢密切关注他们所说的“收入趋同”,或者是贫富之间收入差距的缩小。这样的差距变窄的原因往往包括更高的边际生产力二三线城市的廉价劳动力和土地成本,与政府主导的从区域性轴心到邻居小城市基础设施和公共资源的再分配的经济一体化改善,和技术更广泛的渗透,包括智能手机和互联网,据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的研究。

Economists like to keep tabs on what they call “income convergence,” or the closing of the income gap between rich and poor. Such gaps tend to narrow for a number of reasons, including higher marginal productivity on cheaper labor and land costs in lower-tier cities, better economic integration with government-led redistribution of infrastructure and public resources from regional hubs to small neighbor cities, and broader penetration of technology, including smartphones and the internet, according to the Morgan Stanley research.



所有这些因素目前都在中国上演。例如,较低线的城市受益于政府政策,促进公共资源的发展,例如医院、学校和交通基础设施。例证:自3月以来,中国政府已宣布了设立的计划,不仅是北京附近的雄安新区,也包括长江三角洲的“城市群”,以及广东省的“湾区”蓝图。


All these factors are currently at play in China. For example, the lower-tier cities have benefited from government policies that promote the development of public resources, such as hospitals, schools and transportation infrastructure. Case in point: Since March, the Chinese government has announced plans to set up, not only the Xiong’an New District near Beijing, but also "city clusters" in the Yangtze River Delta, and a “Bay area” blueprint for Guangdong.



邢自强说:“这些举措很可能会补充市场力量,加快低线城市的追赶速度。”


“These various initiatives are likely to complement market forces and speed the catch-up growth for lower-tier cities," Xing says.



事实上,公平的竞争环境已经开始减少一线和二、三线以下城市人口之间的收入差距。十年前,中国小城市家庭的人均可支配收入比那些一线城市的家庭要低55%;这一差别已经下降到现在的45%,到2030年可能会进一步下降到36%

Indeed, the leveling playing field has begun to reduce the income gap between top-tier and lower-tier city populations. A decade ago, per capita disposable income for families in China's smaller cities was 55% lower than those in top-tier cities; the difference has decreased to 45% today, and will likely come down further to 36% by 2030, Xing notes.



到2030年小城市与大城市之间的城市收入差距将进一步缩小



然而,就目前而言,较小城市表面上的弱点已成为它们的优势。尽管上海和北京等一线城市的房地产租金和房价一直都是出了名的昂贵,但在二线城市的房地产市场的相对购买力意味着生活成本的降低,这对企业和工人都是有吸引力的。与此同时,更灵活的官方户籍政策可能会带来更好的社会保障,减少预防性被动储蓄的必要性。


For now, however, smaller cities’ seeming weaknesses have become their strengths. Whereas real estate rents and prices in top-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have been notoriously expensive, the relative affordability of property markets in lower-tier cities means lower living costs, which is attractive for both businesses and workers. Meanwhile, the more flexible official residency policy could bring better social-security coverage, reducing the need for precautionary passive savings.



结合起来,这些优势可以鼓励较小城市的家庭消费。该报告预测,到2030年,在较低级别城市的总消费量将增长8.7%,相比之下,一线城市的总消费量将增长6.6%

When combined, these advantages could encourage household consumption in smaller cities. The report forecasts that total consumption will increase by 8.7% annually toward 2030 in the lower-tier cities, compared to 6.6% in top-tier cities.



随着小城市家庭的预算增加,谁会受益呢?一些行业和品牌或许能够抓住消费者的消费浪潮。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家预计,中国消费者将寻求新的产品、服务和旅行经验——人们以前负担不起的东西——以及从低端品牌升级到更高端的品牌。


Who will benefit as small-city families grow bigger budgets? Several industries and brands may be able to catch this consumer spending wave. Morgan Stanley economists anticipate Chinese consumers will seek out new products, services and travel experiences that were previously unaffordable—as well as upgrade from low-end brands to higher ones.



子更多,旅游更多
More Shoes, More Trips


消费者产品公司,尤其是运动装和珠宝公司,或将成为第一个抓住这些新富裕中产阶级顾客机会的公司,这些顾客将有更多的钱来购买运动鞋以及其他装备。据负责食品和饮料行业的Lillian Lou说,额外的可支配收入也预示着快餐和连锁餐厅的发展,尤其是因为许多公司还没有向较低线的城市扩张。

Consumer products companies, especially sportswear and jewelry, may be the first to capture these newly minted middle-class customers, who will have more money for athletic shoes and accessories. Additional discretionary income also bodes well for fast food and restaurant chains, especially because many have yet to expand into lower-tier cities, according to Lillian Lou, who covers the food and beverage industry.


家庭可能更倾向于把钱花在外面的娱乐上,包括去看电影、去国外旅行、以及去度假胜地澳门——中国的拉斯维加斯。事实上,据报道,去年澳门2000万游客中有60%来自中国的较低线城市。与旅游相关的品牌,从航空公司到酒店到赌场,都应该引起注意。最后,对汽车的需求也可能会在较线的城市中上升,因为在这些城市汽车的自有率落后于较大的城市地区,尤其是在收入增长的情况下。


Families may be more apt to spend money on outside entertainment, including going to the movies, traveling abroad, and taking trips to the resort island of Macau—China’s version of Las Vegas. In fact, 60% of Macau’s 20-million visitors last year came from China’s lower-tier cities, according to the report. Travel-related brands, from airlines to hotels to casinos, should all take note. Lastly, demand for cars also will likely rise in lower-tier cities, where ownership lags behind that of the larger urban areas, especially as incomes grow.



中国经济的转型将继续波及国内和全球的产业。想要进入下一轮经济增长的投资者,将要好好研究这些明显的、中国潜在的小城市的潜力。


China's transitioning economy will continue to ripple across domestic and global industries. Investors looking to tap into the next wave of growth would do well to look past the obvious, at the potential of the country's smaller cities.