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小型城市将推动中国消费繁荣
来源: | 作者:聚合财人 | 发布时间: 2017-06-30 | 6958 次浏览 | 分享到:



2017-30年中国较低线城市将推动三分之二的国内消费增长


人口转移Population Shift



在中国的大城市里,城市人口的增长已经放缓甚至转负。举例来说,上海的城市人口规模自2015年开始收缩,北京的政策制定者们正努力通过建立“雄安新区”的计划,将人们迁移出这座城市,以缓解交通拥堵和过度拥挤的问题。

Urban population growth has slowed or even turned negative in China’s large cities. Case in point, Shanghai's urban population size has contracted since 2015, and policymakers in Beijing are making efforts to relocate people out of the city via plans to set up the “Xiong’an New District,” to ease traffic congestion and overcrowding issues.



与此相反,在过去5年里,由于官方户籍政策更加灵活,生育率更高,城市人口在较低水平的城市人口(已经9倍、3倍于一级和二线城市)在过去5年里以相对较高的速度增长。“根据联合国的估计,我们预计未来14年将有1.66亿人从农村转移到城市,其中75%的人将流向更低层次的城市,”邢自强说。


In contrast, urban population in lower-tier cities—already nine-times and triple that of tier-1 and tier-2 cities, respectively—has increased at a relatively higher pace over the past five years, due to a more flexible official residency policy and higher fertility rates. “Based on a United Nations estimate, we expect 166 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the next 14 years, with 75% of them headed toward lower-tier cities," Xing says.