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中央银行主导时代的终结!
来源: | 作者:聚合财人 | 发布时间: 2017-07-08 | 3531 次浏览 | 分享到:



文章来源:Linkedin、华尔街见闻

全球最大对冲基金——桥水基金的创始人达里奥宣布,宽松时代已经告终!



在过去的九年里,央行把利率压到零,注入了大量的资金,让流动性变得充裕。


For the last nine years, central banks drove interest rates to nil and pumped money into the system creating favorable carries and abundant cash.


这些行动抬升了资产价格,压低名义利率至低于名义增长率,将现金的实际利率转为负值,将实际债券收益率降至零水平。这创造了漂亮的去杠杆,修复了资产负债表,使得经济状况更趋正常。信贷和经济的增长正逐步上升并与债务的增长维持着良好的平衡。


These actions pushed up asset prices, drove nominal interest rates below nominal growth rates, pushed real interest rates on cash negative, and drove real bond yields down to near zero percent, which created beautiful deleveragings, brought about balance sheet repairs, and led to more conventional economic conditions in which credit growth and economic growth are growing in relatively good balance with debt growth.


这个时代已经过去了。


That era is ending.



央行们已经清晰明了地告诉我们,往后,由他们倾注的流动性将逐渐缩小而不再上升——也就是说,政策的方向转变了而我们的现状是:


Central bankers have clearly and understandably told us that henceforth those flows from their punch bowls will be tapered rather than increased—i.e., that the directions of policy are reversing so we are at:


1)长达九年的持续压低利率、注入流动性,来创造资金驱动经济和市场的时代,宣告终结。


 a) the end of that nine-year era of continuous pressings down on interest rates and pushing out of money that created the liquidity-fueled moves in the economies and markets,


2)短期债务周期(或正常商业周期)末期的开启,在这个时点上,央行开始尝试着以一定的速度收紧(这绝对是正确的,它能让增长和通胀不会过热也不会过冷),直到他们失手了,给我们带来下一次大衰退。


and b) the beginning of the late-cycle phase of the business/short-term debt cycle, in which central bankers try to tighten at paces that are exactly right in order to keep growth and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, until they don’t get it right and we have our next downturn.


了解这种状况之后,我们现在的任务是,继续歌舞度日,但逐渐接近离场,并随时留意警钟何时响起。


Recognizing that, our responsibility now is to keep dancing but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.

 

美好的货币政策

 

一般来说(视国家而定),央行大规模减少非常规政策是合理的,因为这些政策已经顺利带来了极好的去杠杆。我认为,在这个发生转变的时点上,我们应该意识到这一成就,并感谢那些为实现这些政策而奋斗的政策制定者。他们必须努力去做这些吃力不讨好的事情。让我们感谢他们。


Generally speaking (depending on the country), it is appropriate for central banks to lessen the aggressiveness of their unconventional policies because these policies have successfully brought about beautiful deleveragings. In my opinion, at this point of transition, we should savor this accomplishment and thank the policy makers who fought to bring about these policies. They had to fight hard to do it and have been more maligned than appreciated. Let’s thank them.


正如你所知道,展望未来,我们并不会很快地挤破大型的债务泡沫(因为资产负债表的修复已经发生),尽管我们的确看到了日益加剧的“大挤压”。


As you know, looking ahead, we don’t project a big debt bubble bursting any time soon (because of the balance sheet repairs that have taken place), though we do see an increasingly intensifying “Big Squeeze” .