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中央银行主导时代的终结!
来源: | 作者:聚合财人 | 发布时间: 2017-07-08 | 3533 次浏览 | 分享到:


1)长达九年的持续压低利率、注入流动性,来创造资金驱动经济和市场的时代,宣告终结。


 a) the end of that nine-year era of continuous pressings down on interest rates and pushing out of money that created the liquidity-fueled moves in the economies and markets,


2)短期债务周期(或正常商业周期)末期的开启,在这个时点上,央行开始尝试着以一定的速度收紧(这绝对是正确的,它能让增长和通胀不会过热也不会过冷),直到他们失手了,给我们带来下一次大衰退。


and b) the beginning of the late-cycle phase of the business/short-term debt cycle, in which central bankers try to tighten at paces that are exactly right in order to keep growth and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, until they don’t get it right and we have our next downturn.


了解这种状况之后,我们现在的任务是,继续歌舞度日,但逐渐接近离场,并随时留意警钟何时响起。


Recognizing that, our responsibility now is to keep dancing but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.

 

美好的货币政策

 

一般来说(视国家而定),央行大规模减少非常规政策是合理的,因为这些政策已经顺利带来了极好的去杠杆。我认为,在这个发生转变的时点上,我们应该意识到这一成就,并感谢那些为实现这些政策而奋斗的政策制定者。他们必须努力去做这些吃力不讨好的事情。让我们感谢他们。


Generally speaking (depending on the country), it is appropriate for central banks to lessen the aggressiveness of their unconventional policies because these policies have successfully brought about beautiful deleveragings. In my opinion, at this point of transition, we should savor this accomplishment and thank the policy makers who fought to bring about these policies. They had to fight hard to do it and have been more maligned than appreciated. Let’s thank them.