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“超级马里奥”主导全球市场基调
来源: | 作者:聚合财人 | 发布时间: 2017-07-14 | 3917 次浏览 | 分享到:




文章来源:Bloomberg Terminal、腾讯证券

作者:Garfield Clinton Reynolds



看!!!马里奥登场啦!



你们以为我说的是他??


错!是下面的马里奥!!




欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)已经成为全球中央银行家中最核心的人物。


Mario Draghi is back as the most central of the world’s central bankers.



最近的全球债券市场下跌或许有美联储6月加息的原因,但实际上在德拉吉表示欧洲通货再膨胀力量复苏之后跌势才开始加剧,因为这一表态导致投资者怀疑,他将很快缩减债券收购规模,并在某个时候提高基准利率。


The recent global bond slide might have been helped by the Federal Reserve’s June rate hike, but it only really got going after European Central Bank President Draghi said reflationary forces are alive in Europe, spurring speculation he will soon oversee a reduction in bond buying and, at some point, an increase in benchmark rates.



贝莱德表示,现在德拉吉的话比美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦更有份量。高盛资产管理公司则指出,德拉吉才是引发债券市场溃败的真正罪魁祸首。互换利率、收益率曲线、汇率表现和投机性仓位数据,也都说明欧洲央行在全球货币政策紧缩行动中的重要角色。


BlackRock Inc. says Draghi’s words are carrying more weight than Janet Yellen’s at the moment, while Goldman Sachs Asset Management fingered the ECB head as the man who really started the bond market’s retreat. And a look at swap rates and yield curves backs up the ECB’s heft in the global tightening move, as do exchange-rate performance and speculative positioning in currencies.



过去两周,我们看到市场心态发生了切实的转变,而且你可以说,德拉吉第一次谈到以某种方式退出宽松政策的必要性引发了这种转变,”高盛资产管理的欧洲、中东和非洲首席执行官Andrew Wilson在接受彭博电视采访时表示。


We’ve seen a real sentiment shift over the course of the last couple of weeks, and you can argue Mario Draghi started it maybe in first talking about the need to sort of remove accommodation,” said Andrew Wilson, chief executive officer for Goldman Sachs Asset Management International for EMEA, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.



根据彭博巴克莱全球综合总回报指数,债券投资者上周遭受6810亿美元损失,是唐纳德·特朗普大选胜出之后11月中旬以来的最大单周跌幅。大部分的跌幅是德拉吉态度变化、进而法国国债拍卖结果疲软引发德国国债暴跌所导致的。


Bond investors are sitting on losses amounting to $681 billion over the course of last week, the worst weekly slump since mid-November following Donald Trump’s surprise election win, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate Total Return Index. The bulk of the drop came after bunds, made vulnerable by Draghi’s shifting stance, tumbled in the wake of a weak French auction.



事实上,一段时间以来,债券市场已经发出信号,表明欧洲已经走到确定市场基调的最前沿。今年5月份,德国收益率曲线趋陡并超越了美国国债收益率曲线,为2012年以来首次。


Indeed, bond markets have been signaling for some time that Europe was moving to the fore in setting the tone, with Germany’s yield curve steepening past that for Treasuries in May for the first time since 2012.



由于其他央行的一些对应机构也加入了德拉吉不那么宽松的基调,这种转变使得除日本以外的发达国家几乎都收紧了投标价格政策。即使在澳大利亚和新西兰——储备银行的行长们暗示不愿在短期内改变他们的现金利率——掉期交易表明,人们预期一年之内至少有一次加息。


With a number of peers from other central banks joining Draghi’s less-accommodative tone, the shift has seen traders price in tighter policy pretty much everywhere except Japan in the developed world. Even in Australia and New Zealand, where Reserve Bank governors have signaled reluctance to shift their cash rates anytime soon, swaps indicate expectations for at least one hike within a year.


也许最戏剧化的转变是,自从德拉吉讲话以来,远期交易显示市场预计欧洲央行明年将把存款利率上调两次,每次10个基点,而直到6月中旬之前,市场还预计没有加息可能性。


In perhaps the most dramatic turnaround, forwards since Draghi spoke are now pricing in two increases of 10 basis points each in the ECB deposit rate next year, compared with none as recently as mid-June.



欧洲央行从现在到今年年底之间的行动,将会比美联储产生更大的影响,”贝莱德的亚洲信贷负责人Neeraj Seth在接受彭博电视采访时表示。


ECB moves from here, between now and the year-end, will have much more of an impact than the Fed itself,” Neeraj Seth, BlackRock’s head of Asian credit, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.



至于美联储,市场定价显示,未来一年将出现一到两次加息——自12月份以来对比与现在放缓,且低于美国央行自己的预测。


As for the Fed, market pricing suggests one or two hikes over the coming year -- a slowdown from the tempo since December and less than the projections of U.S. central bankers themselves.



人们对欧元的看法也表现为欧元攀升至一系列货币的顶部,而美元则经历了其自2010年以来的半年最大跌幅逾6%。


The shift in perceptions is also seen in the way the euro has climbed to the top of the currency pack, while the dollar has tumbled more than 6 percent in its worst half-year since 2010.



因此,对冲基金和其他大型投机者也一直在迅速跳出美元,转向欧元——而欧元长期以来一直是人们最偏爱的看空点。即便如此,他们可能会像之前一样最后被证明是个反向指标,同时德拉吉的转变也引发了人们的担忧,即他承担着走在曲线最前方的风险。


Hedge funds and other large speculators have therefore been bailing out of the dollar at a rapid pace and bailing in on the euro -- which had long been a favorite short. Even so, they may prove a contrarian indicator, as has happened before, with Draghi’s shift also raising concern that he runs the risk of getting ahead of the curve.



欧洲的通胀十分温和”,贝莱德Neeraj Seth称,“在一定程度上,现在转变政策观点有点为时过早,即使我们的确认为今年年底或明年年初欧央行会收紧货币政策”。


The inflation trajectory is very benign in Europe,” BlackRock’s Seth said. “To some extent, at this point, moving from a policy perspective is a little premature, even though I do think we will see the tapering from ECB going into the year-end/early next year.”